Pattern · Temporal

Temporal persistence violation

Stated confidence does not match how much history stands behind the claim — the conclusion is carried at a strength the timeline does not earn.

Candidate PrincipleAll patterns

Occurrences

7

Confidence

High

Trend

Steady

Frequency over time

Business explanation

Stated confidence does not match how much history stands behind the claim — the conclusion is carried at a strength the timeline does not earn.

Metrics repeatedly involved

Monthly Revenue · 7Customers · 4Churn Rate · 3Marketing Spend · 2Refund Rate · 2CAC · 1Support Tickets · 1Average Order Value · 1

Candidate principle

Confidence must be bounded by coverage: a claim resting on fewer than three observed periods cannot be stated at high confidence.

Status

Candidate Principle