AAegis

Constitution · Temporal

Temporal persistence violation

Stated confidence does not match how much history stands behind the claim — the conclusion is carried at a strength the timeline does not earn.

Candidate PrincipleAll principles

Principle

Confidence must be bounded by coverage: a claim resting on fewer than three observed periods cannot be stated at high confidence.

7 supporting investigationsConfidence High5 changed a recommendation

Evolution

  1. Observed
  2. Repeated
  3. Candidate
  4. Validated
  5. Expanded
  6. Revised
  7. Archived

First observed at #5 · latest #21 · 7 evidence items

Business explanation

Stated confidence does not match how much history stands behind the claim — the conclusion is carried at a strength the timeline does not earn.

Suggested reasoning principle

Confidence must be bounded by coverage: a claim resting on fewer than three observed periods cannot be stated at high confidence.

Failure category

Temporal

Trend

Steady